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Queen's Funeral Adds to September Retail Contraction

MNI (London)

UK SEP RETAIL SALES -1.4% m/m (FCST -0.5%); AUG -1.7%r M/M

UK SEP RETAIL SALES -6.9% Y/Y (FCST -5.0%); AUG -5.6%r Y/Y

  • Retail sales volumes contracted again in September, falling by -1.4% m/m in a continuation of the downwards trend since Summer 2021. This was weaker than consensus forecasts.
  • This was 1.3% below pre-pandemic Feb 2020 levels and the second month running below Feb 2020 levels.
  • Both low spending appetite on the back of high inflation cutting into disposable income alongside the public holiday held for the Queen's funeral saw lower September sales.
  • Food sales fell 1.8%, non-food declined 0.6% and online retail fell 3.0%. The decline in food sales is partly due to the closure of supermarkets on the bank holiday.
  • Following this data, retail trade's contribution to Q3 GDP is now -0.1pp, a further slide from -0.06pp in Q2.

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