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Rabobank See BoC Pause In July, Expect Further Steepening

CANADA
  • Rabobank are in the minority of analysts looking for the Bank of Canada to remain on hold tomorrow.
  • Writing after the latest June CPI report, “while these [inflation] data won’t be quite the outcome the BoC was wishing for, it will provide some solace given inflationary pressures had been picking up over recent months.”
  • “Overall, we expect the BoC to pause in July and leave rates on hold at 4.75%. This meeting will be accompanied by a new Monetary Policy Report containing new projections, which should allow the Bank to set the scene for two more rate cuts this year and a continued easing cycle in 2025.”
  • “The curve continues to steepen from the most inverted level seen in 33yrs (back in July of 2023), and we expect that steepening trend to continue in the coming weeks.”
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