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Rally Extends With More Earnings, 2Y Supply and Second Tier Data Ahead

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have extended a rally that saw a further boost late in yesterday’s session with First Republic’s earnings showing a larger than expected drop in deposits in Q1, with the long end today catching up with an initially sharper move in front end yields late yesterday.
  • Today has seen and will continue to see a heavy corporate earnings schedule, with McDonalds and Verizon still to report pre-market and the heavily weighted Alphabet, Microsoft and Visa after the close. We have seen mixed results with GE and GM beating adjusted EPS estimates, but 3M missing EPS and Spotify slightly missing revenue estimates.
  • 2YY -2.3bp at 4.065%, 5YY -5.2bp at 3.518%, 10YY -4.9bp at 3.441% and 30YY -4.2bp at 3.667%
  • TYM3 trades 17 ticks higher at 115-13 off an earlier high of 115-15 on heavier but still not large volumes of 290k. The continued bounce undermines the prior bearish theme, with resistance seen at 115-23 (Apr 14 high) and more focus at 116-08 (Apr 12 high).
  • Data: Philly Fed non-mfg Apr (0830ET), FHFA House prices Feb (0900ET), S&P CoreLogic home prices Feb (0900ET), New home sales Mar (1000ET), Conf Board consumer confidence Apr (1000ET), Richmond Fed mfg index Apr (1000ET), Dallas Fed services activity Apr (1030ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $42B 2Y Note auction (91282CGX3) – 1130ET
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