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Rand Resilient Despite Broader Greenback Strength

ZAR
Downward momentum in USDZAR has picked up in recent trade, despite the recovery in the USD index from its intraday lows through the NY crossover. The pair last deals just over 1% lower on the day at around 18.65, placing the rand at the top of the EMEA FX pile. USDZAR pierced both the mid-October and mid-September lows in the process and reached its lowest since Sep 01.
  • While the move lower is still considered corrective from a technical standpoint, the extension of losses beyond the 50-day EMA at 18.9305 is bearish and signals scope for a deeper pullback toward 18.3805, the Aug 24 low.
  • ZARJPY is trading a notable 2.35% in the green today, putting the cross at its highest since November 2022. Similarly, EURZAR sits over 1% lower and is within close proximity of the Oct 17 low at 19.7411. A break of this level would put the cross at its lowest since Aug 01.
  • Looking ahead, the MTBPS takes focus tomorrow, where a deterioration of fiscal indicators is expected. See our full preview, with a summary of sell-side analyst views, here.
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