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Rapid Rebound Continues, USD/IDR Sub 200-Day MA

IDR

The rapid recovery in the IDR continues. USD/IDR is down a further 1.02% so far today, putting spot sub the 15000 level (last 14998), for the first time since September last year. We are also sub the 200-day MA (15057.28) for the first time since March of last year.

  • Last week's decision to require more companies to keep export earnings onshore continues to aid sentiment, although broader risk appetite is also helping.
  • The IDR is playing catch up to the risk on tone seen in global equities. Onshore equities are lagging global moves, which is weighing on offshore inflows into the space (-$333.8mn net outflows YTD), but a positive offset is coming from continued inflows into local bonds since the start of the year. Foreign ownership of local bonds is now back to early July highs from 2022 (778.49 trillion IDR) and up 9% from late October lows.
  • Note Dec trade figures are due today, while on Thursday this week BI decision is due. +25bps is expected.
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