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Rate Cut Expectations Jump In US CPI Spillover

CANADA
  • 3M CORRA implied yields have tumbled today in spillover from the softer than expected US CPI data, with the Dec’23 -4bps, the Mar’24 -12.5bps and the Dec’24 -22bps.
  • Coming back from yesterday’s Remembrance Day, it sees 2024 cut expectations judging by a Z3/Z4 basis build materially to 83bps from 65bps at Friday’s close.
  • It pushes back towards the recent high for cut expectations of 86.5bp on Nov 3 after both US and Canadian employment reports saw surprise increases in the unemployment rate.
  • Further US spillover is likely from retail sales and PPI tomorrow, with local data potentially biasing reactions at the margin with manufacturing and wholesale sales before home sales.

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