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Rate Differentials Narrow, $1.08 Emerging As Key Level For Bulls

AUDNZD

AUD/NZD has firmed after the Australian unemployment rate held steady at 3.5%, an uptick to 3.6% had been expected. The pair is ~0.2% firmer and sits a touch under $1.08 which has emerged as a key level for bulls.

  • Rate differentials, observed via 2-year swap rates, continue to narrow. We now sit at -145bps having printed at -161bps, a cycle low, last week.
  • Since breaking below $1.08 in early March bulls have been unable to sustain a break above the handle. Bulls look to close above $1.08 and target the 200-Day EMA at $1.0872.
  • Bears first look to break the 20-Day EMA ($1.0737) from here they target 2023 lows at $1.0588.
Fig 1: AU NZ 2 Year Swap v AUD/NZD Daily Spot

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