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TURKISH LIRA: Rate improves to the best levels of the session, taking out
resistance at the March high of 5.8448 in the process as well as the 5.8788
level, which marked the January flash crash high. TRY is comfortably
underperforming all others in EMFX so far Wednesday, and the lack of any
associated pick-up in offshore borrowing costs (as was the case in March)
appears to have allowed markets to re-enter TRY shorts. While the spot rate has
been climbing for a fair few sessions, options markets are more sanguine, with
1m risk reversals failing to see any material upside beyond the recent cycle
high in early April. 5.9373 marks the next significant resistance level, the
38.2% Fib retracement for the decline from 7.2362 - 5.1344.
- Moves come ahead of the Turkish central bank rate decision due tomorrow, with
the bank expected to keep policy unchanged at 24%.
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