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Rates Reverse Post Jobs Move, 30YY Slips Below 3.15%

US TSYS
Rates trade strong after the bell, futures more than make up for Fri's sell-off on stronger than exp June employ report (+372k vs. +268k est).
  • Strong moves on light summer volumes, however, many accts near the sidelines to await Wed's CPI data: MoM (1.0% prior, 1.1% est); YoY (8.6%, 8.8%).
  • Treasury futures held near highs, little react after $43B 3Y note auction's (91282CEY3) modest stop through: 3.093% high yield vs. 3.095% WI; 2.43x bid-to-cover vs. 2.45x last month.
  • Yield curves extended bull flattening for the most part: 5s30s +1.091 at the moment at 12.770, while 2s10s extends inversion to -8.229 (-5.171), 2s5s at -2.431 (-3.680).
  • Short end trades strong, however, after KC Fed George pushed back against need for "supersized" rate hikes, citing recession risks, unpredictable impacts from tightening financial conditions and market volatility. Markets had briefly started pricing in small chance of 100bps hike after Fri's data.
  • Cross asset: Crude and Gold prices remain weaker: WTI at 103.74 -1.05, Gold -8.60 at 1733.82; Equities near lows: SPX emini futures ESU2 -45.25 at 3856.0.
  • Reminder: Earnings season kicks off this week, with financials and banks the early focus. Just over 5% of the S&P 500 by market cap are due to report, with the releases in focus including JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, BNY Mellon, BlackRock, Citigroup, State Street, UnitedHealth and Wells Fargo.
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