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/RATINGS: Moody's says "the PBoC's policy.....>

CHINA
CHINA: /RATINGS: Moody's says "the PBoC's policy emphasis on deleveraging and
de-risking could abate, because of the additional pressure on the economy from
the coronavirus outbreak." Based on this assumption, Moody's expects that
onshore corporate issuance will continue on an upward trajectory through '20;
exceeding the RMB9.7 trillion reported in 2019. "But onshore investors will
continue to prefer state-owned enterprises over POEs. And among state-owned
enterprises, issuance growth in '20 will - as it was in '19 - mainly come from
local government financing vehicles." Moody's explains that because China will
likely increase infrastructure spending to counter the impact on economic growth
from the disruption caused by the coronavirus, the funding needs of LGFVs will
increase accordingly. Moody's also concludes that onshore bond defaults will
continue to rise in '20, but will unlikely trigger systemic risks, because the
amount of defaulted bonds & # of defaulters will continue to be small relative
to the size of the onshore corporate bond market. Moreover, if defaults increase
materially or potential defaults lead to sig contagion risks, Moody's expects
that the authorities will intervene to prevent them from posing systemic risk.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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