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RBA Statement Weighs on AUD/USD, 200-Day MA (0.6750) May Offer Support

AUD

As expected, the RBA left rates on hold at 3.60%, which was in line with market pricing, although economists were more divided. The AUD/USD is down in response to the outcome. The market appears to have latched onto the RBA wording in the final paragraph around further tightening. The Board indicating some further tightening may well be needed. This language in March was firmer when the Board noted it expected further tightening will be needed.

  • This may see the market question any further hikes from the RBA, although market pricing hasn't been skewed that way in any event.
  • AUD/USD is back to the 0.6760/65 region, which is 0.35% lower versus opening levels. We were generally trending higher in the lead up to the announcement, in the 0.6785/90 region.
  • Recent highs have come in around the 0.6740/50 region, so they could act as support on the downside. This also coincides with the simple 200-day MA.
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