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RBC: Looking For Moderation In Three-Month Core CPI

CANADA
  • Released tomorrow, RBC expect headline eased from 5.9% to 5.4% Y/Y in February, as lower gasoline prices could have pushed energy CPI below year-ago levels for the first time in two years.
  • Food inflation is still exceptionally high, and likely remained elevated in Feb. Shelter CPI is expected to have trended over, though accelerating mortgage interest costs partially offset weaker price growth for expenses related to home-buying.
  • More importantly, the BoC’s preferred core measures – CPI trim and median – are expected to continue to moderate on a three-month moving average basis.
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