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Real Net Exports Ended 2023 With A Boost To Growth

US DATA
  • The goods & services trade deficit was close to expected in December at -$62.2bn after a smaller than first thought -$61.9bn (initial -$63.2bn).
  • It sees the three-month deficit at circa 2.7% GDP, a level it’s mostly sustained through 2H23 at the smallest deficits since mid-2020 and mostly back at pre-pandemic levels.
  • Within the details, export goods volumes bounced 3.7% M/M after -2.1% M/M for decent momentum heading into Q1, whilst import goods volumes lifted +1.8% M/M after -2.5%. The net impact should be positive for GDP tracking.
  • Import volume details have mixed implications for domestic demand: consumer imports were strong at 5.5% M/M in Dec after a particularly heavy -6.4% M/M which helps continue a volatile trend, whilst capital goods imports (-0.5% M/M) pulled back for a second month to chip away at strength in the fall.

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