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Real Yield Surge A Key Driving Factor For Risk-Off

US
  • Real yields have rightly been getting plenty of attention recently, with the 5Y real yield currently +16bp on the day and +23bp week to date at 2.22%.
  • It’s just pulled back from poking above 2.25% for fresh highs since 2008.
  • Inflation breakevens remain particularly well behaved at 2.22%, broadly flatlining in recent months and close to recent lows not much below 2.10%, as the Fed’s hawkish dot plot allows this latest market sell-off to borne by real rate channels.
  • The acceleration in the trend increase in real yields has been supporting the USD index but to less extent than at the height of the Fed’s hiking cycle when it was moving in 75bp clips in 2022.
  • Chart shows 5Y real yields (green), nominal yields (white), breakevens (yellow) and DXY (pink).


Source: Bloomberg

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