Free Trial

Regional Fed Manufacturing Surveys Imply Downside Risk For ISM

US DATA
  • The miss for the Dallas Fed manufacturing index (-29.1 vs cons -18.0 after -23.4) completes a mixed month for regional Fed manufacturing surveys.
  • Monthly gains were seen in Philly (from -31.3 to -10.4) and Kansas (from -10 to -1) but with declines in Empire (from +10.8 to -31.8), Dallas above and Richmond (from -10 to -15).
  • An unweighted average of the five falls from -12.8 to -17.5, its lowest yet for the cycle at a level that excluding Mar-May’20 now hasn’t been seen since 2008/09.
  • On its own it points to some further downside pressure for ISM mfg due Thu vs consensus of a broadly unchanged 47.0 (see chart) although before then comes the MNI Chicago PMI tomorrow.
  • ISM service activity has however been holding up better than manufacturing, the latter on its own consistent with recession that hasn’t yet shown up in national accounts owing to service sector resilience.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.