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Regional Fed Mfg Surveys And PMI Move In Opposite Directions Before ISM

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  • The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey (-14.5 after -14.4) completes the five regional Fed manufacturing surveys for April.
  • The unweighted average bounced from -10.8 to -5.1, back closer to its -3.4 in Feb (highest since Apr 2022), after April gains from Empire, Richmond and especially Philly surveys.
  • This improvement goes against the decline seen in the preliminary S&P Global US manufacturing PMI for April, which surprisingly fell from 51.9 to 49.9, although taken together they’re at relative levels similar to the ISM manufacturing’s 50.3 from March.
  • Consensus sees ISM mfg dipping slightly to 50.0 on Wednesday although tomorrow’s MNI Chicago PMI can help add color here.
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  • The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey (-14.5 after -14.4) completes the five regional Fed manufacturing surveys for April.
  • The unweighted average bounced from -10.8 to -5.1, back closer to its -3.4 in Feb (highest since Apr 2022), after April gains from Empire, Richmond and especially Philly surveys.
  • This improvement goes against the decline seen in the preliminary S&P Global US manufacturing PMI for April, which surprisingly fell from 51.9 to 49.9, although taken together they’re at relative levels similar to the ISM manufacturing’s 50.3 from March.
  • Consensus sees ISM mfg dipping slightly to 50.0 on Wednesday although tomorrow’s MNI Chicago PMI can help add color here.