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Regional Fed Mfg Surveys At Odds With PMI Bounce In March

US DATA
  • The Richmond Fed manufacturing index fared better than expected in March, rising from -16 to -5 (cons -10).
  • It completed a mixed month for regional Fed mfg surveys, with the Richmond improvement against little monthly change in Philly, Kansas and Dallas plus sharp retracement lower in the typically volatile Empire survey.
  • An average of the five surveys points to a modest deterioration in the ISM survey after it broadly levelled off at 47.7 in Feb, although is at odds with Friday’s surprise pop higher in the PMI survey from 47.3 to 49.3 – see chart.
  • Before next week’s ISM mfg print will be the MNI Chicago PMI this Friday, which has recently been a useful directional guide barring an undershoot back in Nov.

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