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Regional Fed Mfg Surveys Point To Firmer ISM

US DATA
  • Today’s Richmond Fed mfg index surprisingly fell to -5 (cons +1) in November after +3, back to its lowest since August after the largest monthly fall in eighteen months.
  • It completes the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for this month, a majority of which have improved from October (Empire from -4.6 to +9.1, Philly from -9 to -5.9, Kansas from -8 to -2) although Dallas was little changed (-19.2 to -19.9).
  • Indeed, the unweighted average of the five has increased from -7.6 to -4.7 for its highest reading since Jul 2022.
  • Combined with the S&P Global PMI only dipping slightly from 50.0 to 49.4 in its preliminary Nov release, these manufacturing surveys imply upside bias to the ISM survey after its surprise 2.3pt drop to 46.7 back in October [see chart]. The MNI Chicago PMI on Thursday will be watched for further clues ahead of ISM on Friday.

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