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CANADA DATA: Reliability Of Retail Sales Advance

CANADA DATA
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  • We have had some questions on the reliability of StatCan’s advance retail sales estimate after it showed a strong 1.6% M/M bounce in December (at what would be the strongest M/M increase since Jan 2023 if realized).
  • It follows a flat November, with the two monthly profile potentially driven by consumers postponing late-in-the-month discretionary spending ahead of the temporary GST/HST holiday that was effective from Dec 14 but was announced Nov 21.
  • As for the advance release reliability itself, over the past two years it has seen an average error to the M/M reading for the subsequent full month’s release of 0.1pp (i.e. it has on average undershot) or an absolute average error of 0.2pp. That does however include some large errors in the earlier days of the advance, with an average error of 0.02pp or absolute error of 0.08pp over the latest six months.
  • The response rate for December was on the low side however, with 48.3% the lowest since May’24 and before that Sep’23, which could see scope for larger revisions ahead.
  • There can be larger errors when it comes to comparing the latest iteration of data compared to the original advance but that can take longer to show up.
  • For now, whilst it seems likely there could be some revisions worth at least 0.1-0.2pps, the rough profile should still show a sizeable bounce in December. 
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  • We have had some questions on the reliability of StatCan’s advance retail sales estimate after it showed a strong 1.6% M/M bounce in December (at what would be the strongest M/M increase since Jan 2023 if realized).
  • It follows a flat November, with the two monthly profile potentially driven by consumers postponing late-in-the-month discretionary spending ahead of the temporary GST/HST holiday that was effective from Dec 14 but was announced Nov 21.
  • As for the advance release reliability itself, over the past two years it has seen an average error to the M/M reading for the subsequent full month’s release of 0.1pp (i.e. it has on average undershot) or an absolute average error of 0.2pp. That does however include some large errors in the earlier days of the advance, with an average error of 0.02pp or absolute error of 0.08pp over the latest six months.
  • The response rate for December was on the low side however, with 48.3% the lowest since May’24 and before that Sep’23, which could see scope for larger revisions ahead.
  • There can be larger errors when it comes to comparing the latest iteration of data compared to the original advance but that can take longer to show up.
  • For now, whilst it seems likely there could be some revisions worth at least 0.1-0.2pps, the rough profile should still show a sizeable bounce in December. 
image