Removal Of Troops From Ukrainian Border To Significantly Reduce Tensions

With Defence Minister Sergey Shoygu stating to state-owned media outlet Tass that, at the conclusion of the current military drills, armed service personnel can return to their permanent bases (see 1233BST bullet), tensions between Russia and Ukraine/the West are likely to subside significantly.

• Link (in Russian): https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/11218263
• If it is the case that Russia will soon withdraw a large portion of the military buildup seen in Crimea and on Ukraine's eastern border in recent weeks it will serve to significantly reduce tensions in the region, averting an escalation that could have had major geopolitical consequences.
• Last week MNI published an article examining potential scenarios coming from thethen-escalating Russia-Ukraine crisis (link). In that article we assessed the Base Case (most likely) scenario of being one where Russia used the crisis as a test of Ukrainian military capabilities and NATO's willingness to step in and aid Ukraine's defence, and it appears that it is this scenario that has played out:
  • "Russia does not engage in any military offensive, instead seeking to probe both Ukrainian military strength and NATO willingness to support Kyiv. No resolution to Donbass crisis and sporadic fighting continues indefinitely, region remains a geopolitical hotspot."
  • "the build up of troops and the rhetoric issued from the Kremlin acts as a probe of both the new US administration regarding its willingness to engage in foreign disputes, and Ukraine in terms of its military capabilities in defending its territory."
  • "With no element of surprise, Ukraine has had ample time to deploy defensive forces in the east of the country. This may be Russia's primary goal, as it seeks to gauge the military capabilities of a Ukrainian armed forces that has been notably increased and improved since the 2014 annexation of the Crimea."
• As highlighted in the article, the long-term security issues surrounding the breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine will continue to result in occasional upticks in tension that will continue to risk regional stability.