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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS - Week Ahead 25 Nov-1 Dec
Renzi, Calenda Reach Agreement On Centrist Bloc For Election
The centrist Italia Viva (IV) and Action (A) parties have reached an agreement on forming a centrist bloc (or 'pole') for the upcoming legislative election on 25 September according to Bloomberg.
- Italia Viva, run by former PM Matteo Renzi, and Action led by Carlo Calenda, who served as a minister in the Renzi gov't, will contest the election as a joint alliance. HuffPo reports that Calenda will be the primary face of the centrist pole.
- Action had previously been aligned with the centre-left alliance of parties. However, Calenda withdrew Action following the invitation afforded to the socialist Italian Left party, which Calenda stated were too extreme for him to sit alongside.
- Latest opinion polling shows joint support for the two parties at between 4% and 6%, well short of winning a significant number of seats. The role that a centrist alliance could take is propping up a minority centre-left administration should the centre-right coalition parties significantly underperform on election day.
- Alternatively, a more visible centrist alliance could damage the centre-left's chances. Many Italia Viva and Action voters previously supported the centre-left Democratic Party (PD). Should the centrists begin to gain more press and political attention, it could damage the PD's prospects come the election.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.