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REPEAT: MNI 5 THINGS: Analysts See Continued Gains In US IP 

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 16:19 GMT May 15/12:19 EST May 15
By Holly Stokes
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The Industrial Production report for April will be
released Wednesday, with the median forecast among analysts in an MNI survey
calling for a 0.6% gain in industrial production and capacity utilization to see
a rise to 78.4%.
     Ahead of the release, we outline five themes for particular attention. 
--SMALL UPSIDE RISK TO IP
     In the past 20 April reports, analysts have shown a slight tendency to
underestimate industrial production, with 10 underestimates and eight
overestimates over that period, suggesting a small upside risk to the estimate
of 0.6%. Further, the trend of underestimating has continued in recent years,
with underestimates in the last two years.
--EXPECTATIONS FOR CAPACITY UTILIZATION TO EDGE HIGHER
     Analysts expect capacity utilization to continue its upward trend for the
third month in a row, with a median estimate of 78.4% after 78.0% in the
previous month. If correct, this would be the highest reading since February
2015 and suggest a further decrease in slack for the growing economy. However,
analysts do not have a very accurate history of forecasting capacity
utilization, with only one correct estimate in the past ten Aprils. But with
four underestimates and five overestimates, there is no clear directional risk.
--COLD TEMPERATURES TO KEEP UTILITIES UP
     Utilities jumped 3.0% in March, and now analysts wonder if utilities can
continue this upward momentum. Boosting the odds for another gain, this April
was the coldest in 21 years. Given the unusually chilly weather, the demand for
heating was likely higher than seasonal factors expect. However, many analysts
argue that even with the cold weather, the figure should come in softer than
last month's unusual strength from four Nor'easters.
--INCREASE IN MANUFACTURING TRACKS WITH MANUFACTURING HOURS
     After surprising with a modest 0.1% gain in March, the manufacturing sector
is expected to see a healthy rebound in April. The manufacturing sector roughly
tracks with manufacturing weekly hours worked. Consequently, the 0.5% increase
to 41.1 manufacturing hours in the already released April employment report
suggests a gain for manufacturing industrial production.
--ANALYSTS LOOK TO INCREASED RIG COUNTS AS EVIDENCE OF MINING GAINS
     Recent mining performance has been solid, jumping 1.0% in March and only
declining once in the last seven months. Analysts expect mining to continue this
upward trend, seeing April rig count data as a positive sign for mining.
Baker-Hughes rig count data shows that U.S. oil rigs grew to 825 in the month,
its highest level since March 2015. While an increase in rigs should correspond
to increased mining production, recent history shows that there can be
discrepancies between the two.This was the case in January, when increased rig
counts led analysts to overestimate mining production, when it actually
declined.  
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com
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