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REPEAT: MNI ANALYSIS: Japan Retail Sales Losing Price Support 

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 05:34 GMT Apr 27/01:34 EST Apr 27
By Max Sato
     TOKYO (MNI) - The modest uptrend in Japanese retail sales has now clearly
shifted downward as the previously strong support from energy and food prices is
fading and solid spring clothing demand on mild weather failed to boost overall
sales in March.
     Fuel prices showed a slower year-on-year gain and fresh food prices eased
after surging late last year.
     Retail sales rose 1.0% on year in March, posting the fifth straight
year-on-year rise, but the pace of increase slowed from a recent peak of 3.6% in
December last year, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said Friday. The
severe winter weather and volatile financial markets led to slower gains in
January (+1.5%) and February (+1.7%) after stronger figures in most of 2017.
     On a seasonally adjusted basis, retail sales fell 0.7% in March, the first
drop in two months after +0.5% in February and -1.6% in January.
     --FLAT TO DOWNTREND
     "The seasonally adjusted three-month moving average fell 0.6% in March,
with declines seen in various categories. Retail sales have entered a flat to
downward trend," Kazuhiko Manaka, director of METI's Office of the Current
Survey for the Service Industry, told MNI
     METI downgraded its view on retail sales for the first time since January
2016, saying they were flat. Previously it said retail sales were "picking up
moderately."
     Manaka told MNI last month that the trend in retail sales was already
getting closer to being flat and the ministry might downgrade its assessment on
retail sales.
     --FADING PRICE SUPPORT
     "High prices of crude oil and food eased in mid-March and automobile sales
were down with the effect of new models fading," Manaka said.
     Retail sales have been largely supported by high prices of fuels and
vegetables. Excluding gasoline and heating oil, retail sales gained only 0.4% on
year in March (vs. +1.0% in overall retail sales) and 0.6% in February (vs.
+1.7%), according to METI's estimate.
     Industry data released last week showed department store sales were nearly
flat in March, up 0.1% on year. It was the first year-on-year rise in four
months, led by demand for spring clothing in light of mild temperatures.
     The Japan Department Stores Association noted that spending by tourists
from overseas continued to post double-digit percentage gains from a year before
and that sales to wealthy consumers remained solid.
--MNI Tokyo Bureau; tel: +81 90-4670-5309; email: max.sato@marketnews.com
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