REPEAT:MNI: Australia Job Ads Signal Jobless Rate May Not Fall

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 01:30 GMT Sep 3/21:30 EST Sep 2

--Job Ads Down Four Months In Last Eight

By Sophia Rodrigues

     SYDNEY (MNI) - Job advertisements in Australia fell in August, marking the

fourth decline in the eight months of this year and no longer pointing to

decline in the jobless rate.

     In level terms, the number of job advertisements in August was slightly

lower than January, and could be regarded as a warning sign for the outlook of

the labor market. The Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy outlook is

highly dependent on continued improvement in the labor market, so any

deterioration in the outlook poses risk for its guidance for the next move in

the cash rate to be up.

     Data published by ANZ Monday showed job ads fell 0.6% m/m in August,

following a 1.4% rise in July. In trend terms, the m/m pace rose 0.1%, after two

months of flat outcome. 

     In y/y terms, job ads rose 5.1% in August marking the slowest growth rate

since December 2016. In y/y trend terms, the 6.2% rise in August was the slowest

since November 2016.

     ANZ's head of Australian economics David Plank said the level of job ads is

still consistent with further growth in employment but no longer pointing to a

further decline in the jobless rate.

     But given other indicators of the labor market such as capacity utilization

are still pointing to further declines in the jobless rate, Plank's view is that

a "lower unemployment is more likely than not, but the improvement from this

point will be gradual."

     It is important to note that the outlook for the labor market is extremely

important for the RBA's monetary policy because Governor Philip Lowe has

indicated that as long as the labor market is improving, he wouldn't worry too

much about low inflation.

     From the ANZ job advertisement survey for August

                             August                        July

---------------------------------------------------------------

Job Ads (SA*, Change M/M)      -0.6  +1.4% (revised from +1.5%)

Job Ads (SA*, Change Y/Y)     +5.1%                       +7.3%

Job Ads (Trend, Change M/M)   +0.1%                         0.0

Job Ads (Trend, Change Y/Y)   +6.2%                       +6.9%

--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]