REPEAT: MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Stay At 245,000>

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 13:30 GMT Dec 28/08:30 EST Dec 28

--15 States Needed To Estimate Their Data; Monday Holiday Likely Issue

--Four-Week Moving Average Up 1,750 to 237,750; Could Rise Next Week

--Continuing Claims Rise By 7,000 to 1.943 Million

By Kevin Kastner 

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits 

held steady at 245,000 in the December 23 pre-holiday week, above the 

239,000 level expected, data released by the Labor Department Thursday 

showed. 

--15 STATES ESTIMATED

     Analysts usually take claims data around the holidays with a grain 

of salt, as difficulty with seasonal adjustment make the headline number 

volatile. 

     While that level was unchanged this week, there were estimate 

claims by 15 states that could generate a large revision next week. 

Those states were California, Georgia, Hawaii, Kansas, Maine, 

Mississippi, New York, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Puerto Rico, South 

Dakota, Texas, Virgin Islands, Virginia, and Washington. 

     The claims data tend to be more volatile around the holiday 

periods. Seasonal adjustment factors had expected an increase of 11.8%, 

or 34,036 in unadjusted claims. Unadjusted claims actually rose by 

34,472 to 321,945, so the current week's level was well below the 

343,213 level a year ago. 

--FOUR-WEEK AVERAGE UP     

     The four-week moving average for initial claims, a better measure 

of the underlying trend of the data during periods of volatility, rose 

by 1,750 to 237,750 in the December 23 week as the 238,000 level in the 

November 25 week rolled out of the equation. 

     If the number of headline claims does not change next week and 

there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the four-week 

average will rise by 2,250 as the 236,000 level in the December 2 week 

rolls out of the calculation. 

--CONTINUING CLAIMS RISE

     The level of seasonally adjusted continuing claims rose by 7,000 to 

1.943 million in the December 16 week, down from 1.960 million in the 

November 18 employment survey week, a positive for payrolls. 

     The four-week moving average for continuing claims fell by 4,250 to 

1.920 million. 

     Unadjusted continuing claims rose by 13,146 to 1.978 million in the 

week, keeping the level well below the 2.118 million level a year 

earlier. 

     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate held steady at 

1.4%, down from 1.5% in the same week a year earlier. 

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **