REPEAT: MNI: ### POV: UK ANALYSIS - Q2 GDP Growth....>

MNI: REPEAT: ### POV: UK ANALYSIS - Q2 GDP Growth Unlikely to Slip from 0.3% Q/Q

Prel. Est.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Despite revisions to June production and construction output monthly numbers,

they will not have been enough to have altered q/q Q2 GDP growth. Absent any

revisions made to the back data, the only chance of GDP growth coming in below

0.3% q/q would be if June services output underwhelmed. 

-Services output would need to have grown by less than 0.18% (2dp) in June to

take GDP growth down 0.1pp to 0.2% q/q in Q2. For context, services output grew

by 0.18% m/m in May, averaging 0.07% m/m so far over 2017. Over the past 12m,

however, growth has averaged in at 0.20% m/m. June retail sales volumes,

including fuel, were revised down to 0.3% m/m from 0.6% m/m while the ex-fuel

measure was also revised down 0.3pp to 0.6%m/m.  GDP 2nd estimate is expected

Thursday at 0830GMT