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RBA
RBA: REPEAT: POV: RBA Minutes To Reaffirm Bank's Glass Half Full View
- The lack of dovish rhetoric accompanying the RBA's September MonPol decision
was the key takeaway as the Bank left its cash rate unch. at 1.5%. Some of the
language was more hawkish at the margin as the Bank noted that "in H118, the
economy is estimated to have grown at an above-trend rate," which was vindicated
by the Q2 GDP data. The Bank's language surrounding mortgage rates was constant,
in lieu of the recent out of cycle hike from Westpac (which was followed
post-meeting by ANZ & CBA). The bank altered its language re: the labour market,
but reiterated that it still expected a gradual decline in unemployment, another
view that was vindicated via the subsequent labour market report.
- Central View: A glass half full approach reiterating the next move in the cash
rate will likely be up, downplaying the recent tightening in mortgage rates.
- Hawkish Risk: A focus on the stronger than expected growth outlook &
tightening labour market making the Bank more confident in parts of the Minutes.
- Dovish Risk: A focus on the potential for further mortgage rate hikes, an
unlikely focus as outlined in MNI insight pieces, and/or EM & trade war worry.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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