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Republicans Strongly Favoured To Take Control Of House of Representatives

US

The Republican Party has reversed a period of strong Democrat Party performance in the summer and are now strongly favoured to take control of the lower house in the midterm elections next month.

  • The FiveThirtyEight "Deluxe" election model, which aggregates polling data, expert opinion, partisan lean, and a raft of other metrics clearly shows a sharp reversal of the trend line since the release of hotter than expected September inflation data earlier this month.
  • The changing political environment looks set to elevate House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (D-CA) to Speaker of House in January with pundits now looking at how McCarthy will balance the Trumpist and moderate Republican wings of the House caucus.

Figure 1: Chances of Controlling the House of Representatives (FiveThirtyEight)

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