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Retail Sales Beat In June But Weak Momentum Into Q3

CANADA
  • Retail sales were notably stronger than expected in June as they increased +1.1% M/M (flash +0.3, cons. +0.4) although that was only equivalent to +0.2% M/M in real terms for a 0.9% gain in Q2 (nominal 3.2%).
  • However, much of the strength came from autos and more so gasoline with sales ex autos & gasoline only +0.2% M/M for a likely fall in real terms.
  • Further, momentum into Q3 looks very weak with nominal sales estimated to have declined -2% M/M in the July flash, more than the modest decline some had attributed to declining gasoline prices.
  • GoC yields have dipped with the front-end slowly falling ~1bp for a still +5.5bp rise on the day whilst on the flip side USDCAD pulls back from session highs although that looks more from broader USD strength.
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