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Retail Sales due at 7:00BST

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  • Due to the volatile nature of this release, we don't place much weight on retail sales (and we don't think the MPC does either). However, any big surprises still have the potential to be market moving - particularly with the August rate decision hanging in the balance.
  • Following firmer than expected retail sales volumes in May, retail sales according to the Bloomberg consensus are expected to fall 0.6% M/M in June (inc fuel), a month in which the weather was relatively cooler than May. However, analyst estimates skew to the upside with most estimates ranging from -1.5% to 0.5% (vs 2.9% prior). It is possible the UEFA Euro 2024 tournament (TVs, drinks, food) combined with the Taylor Swift Era Tours (merchandise) may add some upside risks. The inc fuel consensus looks for 0.2% Y/Y (vs 1.3% prior).
  • The ex-fuel Bloomberg consensus looks for -0.5% M/M (with a similar distribution of analyst estimates to the inc fuel measure; prior was 2.9%) and 0.2% Y/Y (vs 1.2% prior),
  • Both the BRC monitor and CBI suggest weaker retail sales in June. The BRC sales index in June saw its first decline since Jun-22 (excluding the volatile April Easter effected data), even taking into account that it is measured in value terms rather than volumes. Similarly, CBI distributive trades reported sales weakening, although not as much as in April.
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  • Due to the volatile nature of this release, we don't place much weight on retail sales (and we don't think the MPC does either). However, any big surprises still have the potential to be market moving - particularly with the August rate decision hanging in the balance.
  • Following firmer than expected retail sales volumes in May, retail sales according to the Bloomberg consensus are expected to fall 0.6% M/M in June (inc fuel), a month in which the weather was relatively cooler than May. However, analyst estimates skew to the upside with most estimates ranging from -1.5% to 0.5% (vs 2.9% prior). It is possible the UEFA Euro 2024 tournament (TVs, drinks, food) combined with the Taylor Swift Era Tours (merchandise) may add some upside risks. The inc fuel consensus looks for 0.2% Y/Y (vs 1.3% prior).
  • The ex-fuel Bloomberg consensus looks for -0.5% M/M (with a similar distribution of analyst estimates to the inc fuel measure; prior was 2.9%) and 0.2% Y/Y (vs 1.2% prior),
  • Both the BRC monitor and CBI suggest weaker retail sales in June. The BRC sales index in June saw its first decline since Jun-22 (excluding the volatile April Easter effected data), even taking into account that it is measured in value terms rather than volumes. Similarly, CBI distributive trades reported sales weakening, although not as much as in April.