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Retail sales due at 7:00GMT

UK DATA

Retail sales data is due for release at 7:00GMT and the Bloomberg median looks for a small monthly decline of -0.1%M/M in February for the ex-autos measure. However, this masks wide disparities in the forecasts which broadly range from -0.5%M/M to +0.7%M/M with a couple of outliers seeing a bigger fall.

  • Note that this data series is volatile at the best of times, but has been particularly so recently. The February data will follow a large fall in December which was entirely reversed in January.
  • In terms of Y/Y the consensus looks for a -0.8%Y/Y ex-fuel print.
  • For the inc fuel print consensus is -0.4%M/M and -0.8%Y/Y.
  • Given the volatility of this data, the MPC and markets tend to look through it somewhat unless there are very large surprises.
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