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Retail Sales Expected To Rise Moderately

AUSTRALIA DATA

Retail sales data for March print today and are a key component of the RBA’s assessment of recent household consumption developments, although this series doesn’t contain the significant services spend. The April RBA meeting statement noted continued uncertainties around the outlook for consumption.

  • Analysts expect sales to rise 0.2% m/m after increasing by the same amount in February. But there is a large variation in forecasts from a fall of 0.7% to an increase of 0.6%. Most estimates are between +0.2% and +0.3%.
  • With prices increasing by more than 0.2%, an outcome around this mark points to declining retail sales volumes. Q1 real sales are released on May 9.
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