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Retail Sales In Focus At 0830ET/1330BST

US DATA

Retail sales should get a boost from fresh stimulus and job growth through the month, industry experts told MNI (see our MNI Reality Check from Wednesday), although some of that improvement came from pent up demand after winter storm disruptions depressed sales in February and isn't necessarily indicative of the coming months' sales pace.

  • Headline retail sales are expected to increase 5.8% after falling 3.0% in February, per BBG survey. Ex-vehicle sales, retail sales expected to rise 5.0%, recovering from February's 2.7% drop. The control group is expected to see a 7.2% increase following a 3.5% decline in February.
  • Goldman sees a 9% rise in sales as part of a front-loaded contribution to growth from stimulus checks (that will bring overall consumption growth of +11.0% in Q1 and +12.5% in Q2.)
  • For similar reasons, Deutsche sees a +8.9% reading, including +7.7% in the control group, and "the starting point for a run of sturdy consumer spending data points over the next several months"
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