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Retail Sales Reaction Reverses, Excepting USD/JPY

FOREX
  • Initial US retail sales react now fully reversed, with EUR/USD, GBP/USD and others back at pre-data levels - the exception here is USD/JPY, which holds ~30 pips of gains having printed another cycle best at 154.41. Rates markets are proving stickier, with the US 10y yield holding above 4.61% at typing.
  • Strong volumes evident across currency markets both ahead of, and in response to, the data - with JPY futures printing cumulative volumes ~15% ahead of average for this time of day. Next notable resistance at 154.56, the 1.618 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing.
  • Price action in EUR futures sees decent buying interest at 1400BST with spot at ~1.0645, helping close the data gap.
  • ECB's de Cos still to speak later today, but he's highly expected to stick to the GC line for a June rate cut (he said earlier this month this was his "central scenario").
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