Retail Sales Remain Subdued; Goods Consumption Rebounds

Norwegian February retail sales ex motor vehicles were 0.1% M/M, while January's reading was revised a tenth higher to 0.0% M/M. The consensus, formed of just four analysts, looked for 0.2% M/M. On a 3m/3m basis, sales fell 0.6% (vs -0.1% prior).

• The volume index of household consumption of goods, which feeds directly into the GDP calculation, was 0.9% (vs -1.8% prior).
• This is a volatile series though. On a 3m/3m basis, consumption was 0.1% in February (vs 1.4% prior). In February, monthly rises in food/beverages/tobacco and vehicle/petrol products were somewhat offset by a fall in electricity/heating fuels consumption.
• Overall, alongside the 0.4% M/M rise in the mainland GDP indicator in January, there are still probably upside risks to the Norges Bank's Q1 '24 mainland GDP growth forecast of 0.0%, but the volatile nature of both this series and the indicator for household goods consumption still adds uncertainty here.