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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessRicher, Narrow Ranges, Awaiting US Payrolls Data
ACGBs (YM +1.0 & XM +4.5) are richer but near Sydney session cheaps after Q3 retail sales volumes unexpectedly rose 0.2% q/q in Q3. This was stronger than expected (consensus -0.3%), although the Q2 dip was revised down a touch to -0.6%. It was the first rise in quarterly retail sales volumes since Q3 last year.
- With cash tsys closed in Asia due to the observance of a national holiday in Japan, the local market traded in a narrow range in the latter part of the session ahead on US Non-Farm Payrolls later today.
- Cash ACGBs are 2-5bps richer, with the 3/10 curve flatter.
- Swap rates are 1-5bps lower, with EFPs little changed.
- The bills strip is slightly mixed, with pricing +/-1.
- Looking ahead to next week, the local calendar sees Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge and ANZ-Indeed Job Advertisements on Monday, ahead of the RBA Policy Decision on Tuesday. Bloomberg consensus is almost unanimous (21/24 economists polled) in expecting a 25bp hike to 4.35% at next week’s meeting.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing assigns a 69% probability to a 25bp rate hike next Tuesday.
- Next Wednesday, the AOFM plans to sell A$800mn of the 2.75% Jun-35 bond.
- TCorp announces that it has increased the existing 3.00% Mar-28 benchmark bond by A$600mn via reverse enquiry.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.