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Right-Wing Bloc On Track For Comfortable Victory, Should Fall Short Of 2/3 Majority

ITALY

The first batch of exit polls suggests that the centre-right coalition will claim an absolute majority in Italy's parliamentary election, with Fratelli d'Italia (FdI) emerging as the strongest party, which makes its leader Giorgia Meloni the most likely candidate for Prime Minister.

  • A Rai exit poll estimated that the centre-right bloc was poised to garner 41%-45% of the vote, which would translate into 227-257 seats in the Lower House. The poll put FdI on 22.5%-26.5%, which would allow it to form a coalition government with Matteo Salvini's League (8.5%-12.0%) and Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia (5.0%-9.0%). It is now up to President Sergio Mattarella to choose the head of government, but he is widely expected to ask Meloni to lead the government formation talks.
  • It is the first time Italy elects its parliament under new rules, with the number of deputies reduced to 400 from 630. The deputies are elected in a parallel voting system, whereby 147 deputies are elected in single member districts, 245 are elected by nationwide proportional representation and 8 are elected in foreign constituencies.
  • While the centre-right bloc is set to claim an absolute majority, the initial projections suggest it will fall short of a two-thirds supermajority needed to amend the constitution without a referendum. The scenario where the centre-right coalition wins a supermajority was considered a risk for markets, even as the bloc's leaders have recently tried to play down controversies surrounding their policy orientations.
  • Election watchers note that Italy's exit polls have a history of getting voting intentions wrong. The nature of the system and its recent introduction add some further uncertainty ahead of the announcement of final results. It is important to keep an eye on further updates.
Fig. 1: Italy 2022 General Election - Rai News' Seat Projection

Source: Rai News

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The first batch of exit polls suggests that the centre-right coalition will claim an absolute majority in Italy's parliamentary election, with Fratelli d'Italia (FdI) emerging as the strongest party, which makes its leader Giorgia Meloni the most likely candidate for Prime Minister.

  • A Rai exit poll estimated that the centre-right bloc was poised to garner 41%-45% of the vote, which would translate into 227-257 seats in the Lower House. The poll put FdI on 22.5%-26.5%, which would allow it to form a coalition government with Matteo Salvini's League (8.5%-12.0%) and Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia (5.0%-9.0%). It is now up to President Sergio Mattarella to choose the head of government, but he is widely expected to ask Meloni to lead the government formation talks.
  • It is the first time Italy elects its parliament under new rules, with the number of deputies reduced to 400 from 630. The deputies are elected in a parallel voting system, whereby 147 deputies are elected in single member districts, 245 are elected by nationwide proportional representation and 8 are elected in foreign constituencies.
  • While the centre-right bloc is set to claim an absolute majority, the initial projections suggest it will fall short of a two-thirds supermajority needed to amend the constitution without a referendum. The scenario where the centre-right coalition wins a supermajority was considered a risk for markets, even as the bloc's leaders have recently tried to play down controversies surrounding their policy orientations.
  • Election watchers note that Italy's exit polls have a history of getting voting intentions wrong. The nature of the system and its recent introduction add some further uncertainty ahead of the announcement of final results. It is important to keep an eye on further updates.
Fig. 1: Italy 2022 General Election - Rai News' Seat Projection

Source: Rai News