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Q1 US Earning Generally Ahead of Forecast

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US TSYS SUMMARY
Risk-off tone surged Monday: Tsy futures surged on heavy volumes (TYU1 >2M ) by the close while equities sold off sharply (S&Ps -2.08% in late trade).
  • Of the various drivers for bid -- global spd of covid delta variant, spike in case counts spurring safe haven buying in EGBs, GBP, Tsys. Note: CDC raised covid related warning to level 4 (highest) to those traveling to the UK even as UK drops virus restrictions. Economic data remains light on wk, Fed in blackout.
  • TYU hit high of 134-25.5 well through bull-channel top of 134-03 and 200% fibonacci projection (134-24.5). 10YY fell to 1.739% low, well through 200DMA on move back to mid-Feb levels. Yield curves bull flattened vs. intermediates while longer curves outperformed (5s30s 112.098 late vs 110.188L).
  • Early on, sources report prop, real$ and foreign bank buying in 5s-30s, fast$ selling bonds and taking stab at entering steepeners vs. intermediates. Mid- to late morning Flow included ongoing real$, foreign and domestic bank buying in 5s-30s, stops triggered on latest move. Fast$ unwinding tactical shorts.
  • The 2-Yr yield is down 1.6bps at 0.2055%, 5-Yr is down 8.7bps at 0.6867%, 10-Yr is down 11.5bps at 1.1756%, and 30-Yr is down 11.1bps at 1.8083%.
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