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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
POLAND
- Interestingly, selling pressure on PLN remains high despite the recent aggressive hikes by the NBP.
- NBP surprised the market in its last two meetings, raising the policy rate by 40bps last month (vs. no change expected) and again hiking by 75bps last week (vs. 25bps exp.).
- USDPLN is currently trading at the high of its two-month range, gradually approaching its key resistance at 4.0160; a break above that level would bring us to May 2020 highs. Next resistance to watch on the topside stands at 4.0440, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibo retracement of the 3.6170 – 4.3080 range.
- We have seen recently that there are many risks for Polish risky assets in the near to medium term: ongoing dispute with EU bloc, FX loan settlement, significant rise in LT interest rates...
- In addition, recession risk has been rising following the sharp flattening of the 2Y10Y yield curve; yield curve currently trades at 3bps and is down nearly 150bps in the past two months.
- With the Fed tapering and recession risks rising in some EM economies, risk Is skewed to the downside for PLN.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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