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Risk Sentiment Buoyed By China RRR Cut; Half-Month CPI Data Due

MEXICO
  • The Mexican peso is better bid this morning, with risk sentiment buoyed by news that the PBoC will cut reserve requirements by 50bp. Having hit a high of 17.3856 yesterday, USDMXN traded as low as 17.1912 earlier this morning, before settling off these lows. On the domestic front, November economic activity and mid-Jan CPI data will be the main focus. INEGI will publish November’s monthly GDP proxy (IGAE) at 1200GMT (0700ET), with growth expected to slow to 3.05% y/y, from 4.24%, reflecting softer industrial and service sector activity.
  • Headline CPI is expected to moderate to 4.78% y/y, from 4.86%, while core may decline to 4.78%, from 4.98%, which would be the lowest since August 2021. Goldman Sachs are focusing on services inflation for any signs that the stickiness (downward price rigidities) seen throughout 2H23 are showing any signs of easing at the margin. This, alongside real activity, labour and wages data, will be important inputs to calibrate the timing of the first rate cut. Data scheduled at 1200GMT/0700ET:
    • Jan. Bi-Weekly CPI YoY, est. 4.78%, prior 4.86%
    • Jan. Bi-Weekly Core CPI YoY, est. 4.78%, prior 4.98%
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