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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
Robert F Kennedy Jr yesterday announced he has dropped out of the Democratic party primary to run for President as an independent.
- CNN reports: “[Kennedy] could play a big role as an independent candidate in determining the winner of the general election… he would start out as one of the strongest third-party or independent candidates this century.”
- CNN quotes a “Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted this past week among likely voters finds former President Donald Trump at 40%, Biden at 38% and Kennedy at 14% in a hypothetical November 2024 matchup.”
- That poll supports a prevailing view that Kennedy, ostensibly a Democrat, would draw votes away from Biden but the reality may be complicated by Kennedy’s recent positions on abortion and COVID-19 which tend to track more closely with the base of former President Donald Trump than President Biden.
- Election Analyst Nate Silver writes, quoting a Democrat strategist arguing a RFK run would “almost certainly” hurt Biden: “I think the evidence is much less clear, and if anything points the other way: toward a Kennedy bid being helpful on balance for Biden.”
- Silver argues, “polls fairly consistently show Kennedy with stronger favorable ratings among Republicans than Democrats.”
Figure 1: “Republicans like RFK Jr. more than Democrats do” (Favourability of RFK Jr. Amongst Republicans and Democrats)
Source: 538
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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