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RUB Gains as API Inventories Mark Sizeable Draw, Focus Shifts to FOMC

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB gas -0.35% lower at the open, moving back below 73.00 on the back of selling pressure on the BBDXY and +1.60% firmer oil markets following a strong API inventories draw (-6.1m bbls vs. -2.4m exp).
  • USD/RUB fell -0.47% in yesterday's session as risk recovered somewhat and post-Duma election jitters subsided.
  • Focus today will undoubtedly be on the FOMC meeting where markets will gauge the Fed's taper timeline and updated dot plot distribution to assess the timing of lift-off and frequency of hikes across the forecast period.
  • RUB has proven to be more resilient than peers ZAR & TRY when faced with rising UST yields – given improving fundamentals, more bullish RUB positioning and its relatively better external/fiscal position vs its peers.
  • Gazprom's recent move to curb exports to Europe could draw geopolitical condemnation/consequences – but could also expedite the commissioning of NS2 and will be monitored in the near-term.
  • Nabiullina is also set to speak today on monetary policy, while industrial production and weekly CPI data are due this afternoon.
  • Intraday Sup1: 72.6637, Sup2: 72.5052, Res1: 73.2181, Res2: 73.5125
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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