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Russia Share of EU Gas More Than US in May but Not Expected to Last

NATGAS

European imports of Russian pipeline gas and LNG rose by 5.8% m/m to 167mcm/day in May driven by increased flows via Bulgaria, according to Montel based on industry data.

  • Russia pipeline gas via the two remaining routes rose 9% m/m to 97mcm/day, Entsog data showed. Southeastern Europe flows via the Turkstream pipeline through Bulgaria rose 18% to 50mcm/day.
  • “The increase was due to the ramp-up of injections in the countries that rely on [the pipeline], Bulgaria and Hungary,” said Yuriy Onyshkiv at LSEG.
  • ICIS suggested Turkstream supplies increased ahead of maintenance in June.
  • LNG shipments from Russia to Europe (excluding Turkey) were unchanged m/m at 70mcm/day with 37% headed to France and 27% to Belgium, Kpler showed.
  • Total Russian gas at 15% of European supplies rose above the LNG imports from the US at 14%, but remained below Norwegian supply volumes.
  • “This is not likely to last as Russian LNG will soon be able to head to Asia via the polar Northern Sea Route for the summer which will reduce supply to Europe,” said Tom Marzec-Manser at ICIS.
  • US LNG production has also recovered again following maintenance.
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