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Russia to Struggle to Find Oil Buyers in Coming Months - UBS

RUSSIA
  • It will likely become more challenging for Russia to find enough buyers to compensate for missing European demand after sanctions take effect next month, according to a note from UBS. So far, Russian crude production has held up well, but output could slip below 9m b/d in 2023. Restricted Russian output and higher Chinese demand will help oil prices rise above $100/bbl over coming months.
  • The Russian economy will contract 3.0% in 2022, contract 2.9% in 2023 and expand 1.5% in 2024, according to a survey conducted by Bloomberg News. 2023 CPI forecast at +5.9% y/y versus prior survey +5.8% while the key rate is seen at 7.50% by end-1Q23.
  • Russia's monetary base rose to RUB16.398trl in the week of Jan 20 from RUB16.393trl in the week prior, according to the Bank of Russia. There are no other major economic releases or speakers scheduled today.
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