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Russian Market Faces Significant Decrease in Yuan Liquidity

RUSSIA
  • Amid the shortage of yuan on the Russian market, the CBR has ramped up forex swaps with banks, which have totalled CNY 35.7bln since the start of 2024 compared to less than CNY 60bln in all of 2023, Kommersant report, adding that forex swap rates have exceeded 4% in recent days, which is several times higher than at the beginning of the year. The yuan liquidity crunch is expected to continue amid the reduction of sales by the central bank, growing demand from importers and restrictions imposed by Chinese banks due to sanctions.
  • Chouzhou Commercial Bank, the main Chinese bank for Russian importers, has notified clients that it is suspending all transactions with Russian and Belarusian organisations, Vedomosti report according to its sources. Other Chinese banks have also reportedly restricted transactions with Russia, the newspaper write.
  • Russia's budget deficit was RUB308b in January, according to the Russian Ministry of Finance. The Ministry said federal budget revenues from the oil and gas sector amounted to RUB 675bln ($7.4bln) in January 2024, which is 58.7% higher than in the same period last year.
  • The following data is on the docket this afternoon (16:00GMT/19:00 local time):
    • Retail Sales (Est: +11.9% y/y; Prior: +10.5%)
    • Unemployment Rate (Est: 2.9%; Prior: 2.9%)
    • Real Wages (Est: +8.0% y/y; Prior: +9.9%)
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