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R&W Poll Shows Close Race In Swing States

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The latest swing state opinion polling from Redfield and Wilton shows a number of close contests, with most crucial races within the margin of error. The poll shows Republican nominee former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona (46%/43%), Georgia (47%/42%), Michigan (44%/41%), Nevada (45%/43%), North Carolina (46%/43%) and Pennsylvania (46%/42%). Wisconsin is a dead heat at 44% each.

  • The poll also shows Trump leading in Florida with Harris ahead in Minnesota. While not impossible, it is unlikely that that either of these states will prove pivotal, with Florida (hasn't gone Democrat since 2012) viewed as likely Trump and Minnesota (not gone red since 1972) likely Harris.
  • The main takeaway from state-level polling at present is that most results are showing the key six (AZ, GA, MI, NV, PA, WI) as being within the margin of error, making them effective toss-ups.
  • The other factor in the R&W poll is that third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is garnering enough support in almost all swing states to materially impact the result.
  • At present the Kennedy campaign claims to be on the ballot in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina. He has filed papers to get onto the ballot in Arizona and Wisconsin.

Chart 1. Swing State Opinion Polling, %

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The latest swing state opinion polling from Redfield and Wilton shows a number of close contests, with most crucial races within the margin of error. The poll shows Republican nominee former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona (46%/43%), Georgia (47%/42%), Michigan (44%/41%), Nevada (45%/43%), North Carolina (46%/43%) and Pennsylvania (46%/42%). Wisconsin is a dead heat at 44% each.

  • The poll also shows Trump leading in Florida with Harris ahead in Minnesota. While not impossible, it is unlikely that that either of these states will prove pivotal, with Florida (hasn't gone Democrat since 2012) viewed as likely Trump and Minnesota (not gone red since 1972) likely Harris.
  • The main takeaway from state-level polling at present is that most results are showing the key six (AZ, GA, MI, NV, PA, WI) as being within the margin of error, making them effective toss-ups.
  • The other factor in the R&W poll is that third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is garnering enough support in almost all swing states to materially impact the result.
  • At present the Kennedy campaign claims to be on the ballot in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina. He has filed papers to get onto the ballot in Arizona and Wisconsin.

Chart 1. Swing State Opinion Polling, %

Keep reading...Show less