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Santander; 4Q23 Results Positive, Upgrades Possible

FINANCIALS

Santander (SAN SM) reported 4Q23 results this morning which were positive with good metrics on capital and credit.


  • Revenues were EUR14.55bn (+7% y/y, or +14% y/y ex-FX, consensus: 14.45bn), costs were slightly better than expected and loan losses came in at EUR3.42bn (1.18% of loans, only up 5bp on 3Q23, cons: 3.47bn) so good across the board and net profit was EUR2.93bn (cons: 2.56bn).
  • Capital was bang in line with expectations; CET1 was 12.3% (cons: 12.3% and flat q/q) and total capital was 16.3% (+10bp q/q). Non-performing loans were only up 1bp to 3.14% in the quarter (Spain and UK good; positive for Sabadell, Lloyds and NatWest).
  • Guidance for 2024 includes “mid single digit” revenue growth (consensus only +3% now) and an RoTE of 16% with loan losses flat on 2023. This all implies an earnings upgrade for equity holders.

A positive set of results with an upgrade and good capital and credit metrics. The equity has traded down a little YTD but the cash curve of the parent is broadly tighter which is underpinned by these results, we feel. Conf call is 0900 London time onhttps://aiti.capitalaudiohub.com/santander/reg.html

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