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SARB 2024 Average Inflation Forecast Revised Slightly Higher

SOUTH AFRICA
  • SARB sees inflation avg 5.1% in 2024; saw 5% (BBG)
    • Sees inflation avg 4.6% in 2025; unch. from Jan.
    • Sees inflation avg 4.5% in 2026; unch. from Jan.
  • SARB sees core inflation avg 4.8% in 2024; saw 4.6%
    • Sees core inflation avg 4.6% in 2025; unch. from Jan.
    • Sees core inflation avg 4.5% in 2026; unch. from Jan.
  • SARB 2024 GDP growth est. unchanged at 1.2%
    • Sees GDP growth at 1.4% in 2025, 1.6% in 2026
  • SARB model sees repo rate 7.37% by end '25; saw 7.29%
    • SARB model sees repo rate 7.33% by end ’26; saw 7.3%
  • SARB sees inflation reaching 4.5% goal midpoint by end-2025
  • SARB says return of inflation to target 'has been slow’

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