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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
- Personal spending was stronger than expected in September at 0.74% M/M (cons 0.5) in nominal terms and 0.38% M/M (cons 0.3) in real terms.
- The 3M/3M stood at 4.0% annualized (as known from the Q3 advance yesterday) but this latest momentum is reasonable heading into Q4. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow will offer its first take on Q4 GDP today taking this into account.
- Personal incomes meanwhile were marginally softer at 0.34% M/M (cons 0.4), whilst in real disposable terms notably saw a third consecutive monthly decline with an unchanged -0.1% M/M.
- With spending outpacing incomes, the additional consumption strength was come from a renewed push lower in the savings rate. Falling more sharply to 3.4% in September after 4.1% and 3.9% in Jul and Aug respectively, the savings rate has been run down quickly again from a recent peak of 5.3% in May and is back at levels last seen in late 2022.
- The build in the savings rate over the spring explains a large part of the volatile profile in personal consumption, which has swung from 3.8% annualized in Q1 to 0.8% in Q2 and then 4.0% in Q3.
- However, having bottomed out at 2.7% in mid-2022 and more generally around 3%, there is unlikely much further the savings rate can be run down in the interim.
- Excess savings admittedly likely haven’t been fully exhausted yet, although the recent shunt higher in the stock of excess savings after the benchmark revisions shows how this concept should be treated with caution.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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