Scandi Analyst Views Ahead Of December CPI (2/2)

In the below, we summarise a selection of Scandi analysts previews ahead of Monday's release.

• Bloomberg consensus for CPIF ex-energy is 5.2% Y/Y (vs 5.4% prior); CPIF 2.2% Y/Y (vs 3.6% prior).
• In its November MPR forecasts, the Riksbank bank saw CPIF ex-energy at 5.61% Y/Y and CPIF: 2.11% Y/Y.

Danske Bank: CPIF ex-energy 5.0% Y/Y, 0.5% M/M; CPIF 1.9% Y/Y, 0.3% M/M

• "We expect higher prices on food, clothing but a small decline in hotel/restaurant prices".
• "Transportation services and recreation prices are likely to bounce back after the drop in November as there is strong demand for winter holidays".
• "Electricity remained high in December while car fuel dropped back significantly on the back of global energy price drops".

SEB: CPIF ex-energy 5.1% Y/Y, 0.5% M/M; CPIF 2.1% Y/Y, 0.5% M/M

• Annual rate is driven by electricity prices. On a monthly basis, electricity prices are expected to rise slightly, but fuel prices will decline.
• Goods and food inflation are expected to continue pulling the CPIF ex-energy rate lower.
• "Service inflation has so far remained sticky but is expected to edge lower in December".
• "The stronger krona at the end of last year reduces the upside risks for inflation although lags imply that the exchange rate will continue to exert some upward pressure on core inflation in the first half of this year".

Nordea: CPIF ex-energy 5.2% Y/Y, 0.7% M/M; CPIF 2.1% Y/Y, 0.4% M/M

• "The reasons for the sharp drop are falling energy prices, a reduction of other global costs and softening demand in Sweden and elsewhere".
• "We see higher goods prices in December, partly reversing the sharp fall in November. Prices for services rose on the month, mainly driven by seasonal price hikes for foreign travel".
• "Risks are on the downside for the December reading as reduced cost pressures could hamper price increases more than forecast".

Handelsbanken: CPIF ex-energy 5.2% Y/Y; CPIF 2.2% Y/Y

• See the December decline as temporary as electricity base effects wear off. "Partly counteracting the bounce in January, is the fall in fuel prices, particularly diesel".
• "We highlight that firms' pricing plans keep signalling a higher frequency of price increases in Q1 2024, and more generally that first quarters — even considering the usual January sales — is the primary price-hiking season in many sectors".

Swedbank: CPIF ex-energy 5.3% Y/Y, 0.7% M/M; CPIF 2.2% Y/Y, 0.6% M/M

• Electricity base effects will pull down the headline rate in December, but inflation will rebound in January (in spite of lower petrol prices).
• See a small fall in underlying inflation : "Although the factors squeezing prices are growing in importance and should support the favorable inflation trend going forward, December was probably affected by higher prices in some categories after November’s big Black Friday sales, which the inflation outcomes from Norway and Denmark seem to confirm".